Cracking the 0DTE Code, Part 2: The 6 Pre‑Market Trading Regimes
Updated: Jul 11, 2026 · Read Part 1
This does not eliminate the edge of using regimes — the framework remains very effective as a structural guide. However, it becomes even more powerful when combined with real-time tools that do not rely only on historical patterns.
Intro
In Part 1, we showed why static (“naive”) gamma maps are great for pre‑market terrain but weak for intraday timing and how live customer/market‑maker (MM) delta positioning sharpens 0DTE entries. In Part 2, we add a second lens: pre‑market structure on SPY. By classifying the open into six regimes, we can attach unconditional and conditional probabilities to the day’s key level interactions. (Note: this applies to SPY; SPX doesn’t trade pre‑market.)
Key Levels & Notation
- PMH = Pre‑Market High
- PML = Pre‑Market Low
- YDH = Yesterday’s High
- YDL = Yesterday’s Low
The Six Pre‑Market Regimes
Visual overview of the six SPY pre-market trading regimes.
| Regime | Definition | Typical Tendency |
|---|---|---|
| 1) Inside Yesterday’s Range | YDL ≤ PML ≤ PMH ≤ YDH — pre‑market fully inside yesterday’s range. |
Lower‑volatility; mean‑reverting sessions common. |
| 2) Full Gap Above | YDH < PML ≤ PMH — full gap above yesterday’s high. |
Breakaway potential; high odds of a backtest first. |
| 3) Full Gap Below | PMH < YDL — full gap below yesterday’s low. |
Bearish skew; frequent retests of breakdown area. |
| 4) Top Overhang (poke above) | PMH > YDH, PML ≥ YDL — pre-market poked above yesterday’s high but stayed supported above yesterday’s low. |
Short-trap dynamics; often fuels continuation higher. |
| 5) Bottom Overhang (poke below) | PML < YDL, PMH ≤ YDH — pre-market poked below yesterday’s low but stayed capped below yesterday’s high. |
Long-trap dynamics; often sets up reversal rallies. |
| 6) Spans Both Sides (Wide PM) | PML < YDL and PMH > YDH — exceeded both extremes. |
Expansion regime; typically high intraday volatility. |
How Often Each Regime Appears
Before looking at trade setups, it helps to understand how often each structure actually shows up. In my cleaned SPY pre-market research sample, the regime distribution looked like this:
| Regime | Description | Frequency |
|---|---|---|
| Regime 1 | Inside / mixed / overlapping structure | 29.69% |
| Regime 2 | Full gap above yesterday’s range | 1.61% |
| Regime 3 | Full gap below yesterday’s range | 1.50% |
| Regime 4 | Top overhang / pre-market poke above YDH | 37.74% |
| Regime 5 | Bottom overhang / pre-market poke below YDL | 25.09% |
| Regime 6 | Wide pre-market range spanning both sides | 2.53% |
| Unknown / filtered | Insufficient, overlapping, or filtered level data | 1.84% |
Regime 4 and Regime 1 make up the largest share of days, followed by Regime 5. Full gap regimes, Regime 2 and Regime 3, are relatively rare. Regime 6 is also uncommon, but when it appears it often signals a wider volatility environment.
This matters because a setup that looks attractive in a rare regime may not provide many opportunities over time. For 0DTE trading, the goal is not just to find a setup with theoretical edge. The goal is to find structures that appear often enough to matter while still being selective enough to avoid low-quality chop.
The Probabilities Framework
Once the regime is known, frame the day with two sets of stats:
Unconditional probabilities
- Close crosses above/below PMH/PML?
- Tags/breaks of YDH/YDL?
Conditional probabilities (examples)
P(YDH | ↑PMH close)P(YDL | ↑PMH close)P(YDL | ↓PML close)P(YDH | ↓PML close)P(PMH | ↑YDH close)P(PML | ↓YDL close)P(PMH | ↓YDL close)P(PML | ↓YDH close)P(PMH | ↑YDL close)P(PML | ↑YDL close)
P(YDH | ↑PMH close) = Probability that YDH is tagged/broken given a candle close above PMH. Any timeframe works; I prefer 5‑minute for balance of accuracy and hit rate. Not all conditionals apply in every regime based on opening location.
Putting It Together with 0DTE Flow
Pair regime probabilities with live customer/MM delta positioning (from CBOE open‑close 10‑min data) to build a two‑factor playbook:
- Inside range: Fade extremes; favor mean reversion. PMH to PML, and PML to PMH ranges very common. Watch gamma for breakouts.
- Full gaps: Look for backtests before continuation.
- Overhangs: Watch for failed pokes to reverse, or continuation traps to spring.
- Wide spans: Expect multiple high‑volatility setups.
For 0DTE traders, this framework provides a structured edge to narrow the focus from "infinite possibilities" to six probabilistic scenarios, each with measurable odds. It encourages inaction during chop, trading only during ideal setups.
Confirmation tip: wait for a close beyond your level; if a subsequent candle closes back across against your bias, consider exiting. Always respect theta. If trading futures, obviously you can avoid this, which is an advantage.
Closing Thoughts
Traders often say “it’s a game of probabilities,” but rarely quantify them. The six SPY pre‑market regimes give a measurable framework. Combined with MM positioning, you get a repeatable two‑factor edge:
- What is our daily bias, and what are the odds of key level interactions? (regime)
- How are MMs positioned right now? (exposure)
Join the Community & Get the Tool
If this was useful, hop into the free Foxchase Trading Discord for daily setups, regime probabilities, and discussion. The raw probability tables are pinned there for free if you’d rather build your own tool.
TradingView SPY Key Levels & Regimes Indicator — Put this framework to work instantly:
👉 whop.com/foxchase-trading/spy-key-levels-regimes-indicator