🦊 Day 1
Skipped the prior day due to Regime 6 / no trade.
🟢 Green Day
Starting Balance$3,000
Current Balance$3,727
Daily PnL+$727
Total Series PnL+$727
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: ZWAP
Supporting Context: PML flush / bearish bias / negative gamma
Management / Exit: Took a ZWAP bearish bias PML flush scalp with 20x 646P. Took profit around the usual 20%–30% gain window for +$340.
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: Volatility posture / z-score
Supporting Context: R5-R reversal / OB target
Management / Exit: Took an R5-R reversal long into the OB with 10x 653C. Took profit around the usual 20%–30% gain window for +$387.
Could have held the R5-R longer, but there was still quite a bit of negative gamma on NDX, so I stayed conservative. Target was VXX OB, which was hit.
Starting Balance$3,705.71
Current Balance$4,577.43
Daily PnL+$932
Total Series PnL+$1,659
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: ZWAP
Supporting Context: Early R4-VC reversal (likely due to gap-up open)
Management / Exit: Took a ZWAP short scalp to YDH. Signs of an unusually early R4-VC reversal, likely caused by the gap-up open. Targeted YDH key level exit. +$500
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: PML key level momentum
Supporting Context: PML flush / 10am hammer / R4-R
Management / Exit: Took the PML flush into the 10am hammer candle for the R4-R setup. +$362
Trade 3
Primary Entry Reason: Volatility posture / z-score, R4-R 10am behavior
Supporting Context: 10am confirmed hammer / R4-R / chop
Management / Exit: Took far OTM calls on the confirmed 10am hammer candle to catch the R4-R reversal while reducing some of the chop volatility. Exited early for +$70 after realizing I went a bit too far OTM to capture the short-term move.
Starting Balance$4,577.43
Current Balance$5,127.79
Daily PnL+$606
Total Series PnL+$2,265
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: ZWAP
Supporting Context: R5-R opening short
Management / Exit: Took a short scalp into the OB (above PML) for +$386.
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: Volatility posture / z-score
Supporting Context: ~9:45 long / ZWAP short bias exit
Management / Exit: Took the long around 9:45 for +$220. Very quick, strong candle.
Overall a pretty straightforward day. Our favorite setup, really: R5-R. Short first (optional), then long around 9:45 and let the session do the rest. Did I sell early? 100%, yes. For the sake of the small account challenge, the goal is to compound the account — not necessarily squeeze the full move, but lock in safer gains early and keep the curve growing.
Starting Balance$5,127.79
Current Balance$5,655.79
Daily PnL+$528
Total Series PnL+$2,655.79
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: ZWAP
Supporting Context: Weak R5-R setup / z-score around -4 at open / PML flush
Management / Exit: Took a ZWAP short / PML flush for +$520.
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: Bearish OB rejection
Supporting Context: Bearish OB tap and reject / negative gamma / BULL DIV (EX) on monitored contract
Management / Exit: Correctly identified the bearish OB tap and reject, but hesitated on the entry and fat-fingered 1 contract instead of 10. Seeing a BULL DIV (EX) on the specific contract I was watching also spooked me, so I exited near breakeven for +$8.
After that hesitation, I chose not to re-enter short and called it a day. In hindsight, that was still a good decision with price later chopping just below EM-. Main issue: execution and hesitation, not the read.
Starting Balance$5,655.79
Current Balance$1,977.51
Daily PnL-$3,580.00
Total Series PnL-$1,022.49
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: ZWAP short continuation
Supporting Context: Missed original ZWAP short / negative gamma still strong / higher probability of hitting PML and possibly flushing further
Management / Exit: Shorted into the consolidation after missing the cleaner initial ZWAP short entry. Stop loss was a close above Y-mid. Averaged down into the choppy consolidation, which turned it into a much larger loss than it should have been.
This was a good example of the downside of going close to 1:1 sizing in a small account. It hurts much more when the clean entry is missed and the trade is pressed into chop. And of course, after stopping out on the close above Y-mid, price dumped right back below it. Main issue: averaging down into chop after missing the cleaner first entry.
Starting Balance$1,962.72
Current Balance$2,103.72
Daily PnL+$141
Total Series PnL-$896.28
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: Volatility posture / z-score
Supporting Context: PMH rejection / high starting z-score / SPY bearish OB confluence with QQQ EM+
Management / Exit: Initial short entry was for PMH rejection with a high starting z-score, but the timing was early and the move failed at first. Price pushed up into SPY’s bearish OB, which also lined up with QQQ EM+. From there, the double rejection brought price back down into the main NDX gamma and SPY opening order block, allowing the trade to recover and finish +$141.
We timed the short too early, but the mean reversion back into the opening order block gave us the chance to recover. Good example of the idea being right, but the timing being off.
Starting Balance$2,085.18
Current Balance$2,315.18
Daily PnL+$230
Total Series PnL-$684.82
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: Momentum, order block liquidity
Supporting Context: Opening long / target at bearish OB above / bearish divergence signal on exit
Management / Exit: Took a long right off the open targeting the bearish OB above. Exited early due to a bearish divergence signal, though the target was hit several minutes later. +$150
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: Short momentum / mean reversion scalp
Supporting Context: Rejection of bearish OB
Management / Exit: Took a short momentum trade off the rejection of the bearish OB, targeting a mean reversion. Because NDX positive gamma remained persistent throughout, this was treated as just a scalp rather than something to press. +$80
Did not want to overstay in Regime 2, since we do not have any strict setups for it in the playbook.
Starting Balance$2,315.18
Current Balance$2,530.18
Daily PnL+$215
Total Series PnL-$469.82
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: ZWAP short bias, negative z-score decay
Supporting Context: Deeply negative z-score / exponential decay / falling SPY price
Management / Exit: Took a ZWAP short bias entry with deeply negative z-score, exponential decay, and falling SPY price all aligned. Scaled out slightly early, exiting right above the order block for +$215, mainly to avoid the risk of positive gamma bouncing price. That bounce did end up happening very soon afterward, back above VWAP.
Good example of taking the cleaner scalp and not overstaying when gamma conditions could interfere with continuation, especially in a volatile Regime 3.
Starting Balance$2,497.73
Current Balance$2,658.25
Daily PnL+$160.52
Total Series PnL-$341.75
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: ZWAP short bias / R4-C
Supporting Context: Near open / possible PML flush / uncertainty around OB hold
Management / Exit: Took the short near the open based on ZWAP short bias and possible PML flush for the R4-C play. Took profits around +25% because I was not fully confident the order block would hold. It did hold, but I chose to realize the gain. +$360
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: Long toward PMH/YDH magnet
Supporting Context: PMH/YDH magnet / strong cross of PML on VXX / spike above order block zone
Management / Exit: Took the long toward the PMH/YDH magnet. Also noticed VXX crossed PML quite strongly, which reinforced the idea that price would spike above the magnet / order block zone. +$183
Trade 3
Primary Entry Reason: Persistent forward negative gamma ramp on NDX
Supporting Context: Bearish OB rejection / two untapped order blocks below / no EM level hit on the day yet / note: not below PML, conviction low
Management / Exit: Targeted one of the lower OBs or EM- for an end-of-day flush. Small position without a hard stop loss, though 660+ would have been the clear invalidation. -$376
Decided to play with a little bit of house money, because sometimes that’s what you have to do to grow a small account. Not ideal, and not something I’d recommend for larger accounts.
Starting Balance$2,635.01
Current Balance$3,027.01
Daily PnL+$392
Total Series PnL+$27.01
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: ZWAP short bias, GEX support
Supporting Context: YDL area / path toward PML / Regime 6 / not ideal negative gamma ramp
Management / Exit: Took a ZWAP and GEX-supported short from the YDL area down toward PML. Even though this was Regime 6, which is normally a skip because it is not in the playbook, the ZWAP and gamma context were enough to justify the entry. Exited early because the negative gamma ramp was not ideal. +$392
Good example of bending the usual skip rule only when there is enough supporting context to justify it, while still staying conservative on the exit.
Starting Balance$3,027.01
Current Balance$3,091.60
Daily PnL+$111
Total Series PnL+$91.60
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: ZWAP short confirmation
Supporting Context: Regime 2 / tendency to work back toward prior day’s range / NDX positive gamma with a backward ramp beginning at the open / PML flush target / lower position size due to chop
Management / Exit: Once we saw the NDX gamma structure, it confirmed that a slow bleed was possible. We targeted a PML flush with ZWAP short confirmation. Lots of chop. EM- was the ideal target, but the break through the order block was too slow, so there was increasing risk of a bounce. +$111
Regime 2 is normally a skip, but these days often try to work back toward the previous day’s range. Lower-conviction = lower size.
Starting Balance$3,091.60
Current Balance$3,758.62
Daily PnL+$732
Total Series PnL+$758.62
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: PMH breakout
Supporting Context: Regime 1 / PMH breakout / forward positive gamma ramp on NDX / upgraded from B setup to A setup due to GEX context
Management / Exit: Took the PMH breakout in Regime 1, supported by a forward positive gamma ramp on NDX. Normally this is more of a B setup, but the added GEX context upgraded it to an A setup, so I traded it with larger size. +$732
Good example of letting broader gamma context influence conviction and sizing when the setup quality improves.
Starting Balance$3,721.47
Current Balance$3,881.47
Daily PnL+$160
Total Series PnL+$881.47
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: R4-C short / ZWAP short bias
Supporting Context: R4-C setup / ZWAP short bias confirmation
Management / Exit: Took the first R4-C short with ZWAP short bias confirmation. +$160
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: R4-C short re-entry / ZWAP short bias
Supporting Context: Re-entry of same R4-C short idea / continued ZWAP short bias
Management / Exit: Re-entered the same R4-C short setup for a second push lower. +$120
Trade 3
Primary Entry Reason: Mean reversion long attempt
Supporting Context: Positive gamma ramp / 10am timing / target was 681 main gamma area on SPY
Management / Exit: Took a long attempt around 10am based on the positive gamma ramp and the idea of a mean reversion back to the 681 main gamma area on SPY. The move did not develop as expected. -$120
Tricky post-CPI Friday price action. Using smaller positions due to less conviction served us well.
Starting Balance$3,842.44
Current Balance$4,419.44
Daily PnL+$577
Total Series PnL+$1,419.44
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: ZWAP short scalp
Supporting Context: Potential move to VWAP / took profit early
Management / Exit: Took a ZWAP short scalp with the possibility of a move down to VWAP, but chose to take profits early. +$221
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: R3 long / ZWAP short bias exit
Supporting Context: Waiting for ZWAP to exit short bias / R3 behaves similarly to R5-R
Management / Exit: Waited for ZWAP to exit short bias before taking the long, since R3 shares the same setup logic as R5-R. The move happened very abruptly, so only part of it was captured. +$210
Trade 3
Primary Entry Reason: ZWAP long momentum
Supporting Context: EM+ target / historical tendency for R3 to hit EM+ / bearish OB overhead
Management / Exit: Took a ZWAP long momentum trade targeting EM+, since historical data suggests R3 typically reaches EM+. Exited early in profit at the bearish OB, a bit short of the full EM+ target. +$146
Regime 3 is becoming more predictable as we gather more data for the framework, which is great news.
Starting Balance$4,391.57
Current Balance$3,741.57
Daily PnL-$650
Total Series PnL+$741.57
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: Mean reversion attempt
Supporting Context: Missed the opening rally / ZWAP long bias exit / target was max GEX / choppy price action / positive GEX environment
Management / Exit: Hesitated and missed the rally at the open. Later tried to capture a mean reversion back toward max GEX once ZWAP long bias exited, but after several minutes of chop the trade was stopped out. Positive GEX won. -$650
Good discipline today. Also worth noting: both of the red days in this series so far came after missing the initial move and then trying to grab another move afterward.
Starting Balance$3,741.57
Current Balance$4,063.67
Daily PnL+$350
Total Series PnL+$1,091.57
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: Expanded Typical breakout / ZWAP confirmation
Supporting Context: Breakout above PMH / Expanded Typical day structure
Management / Exit: Took the Expanded Typical breakout above PMH with ZWAP confirmation. +$460
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: Long continuation
Supporting Context: Move toward max gamma / ZWAP long bias exit
Management / Exit: Took the long continuation toward max gamma, but exited on ZWAP long bias exit. -$110
No specific R4 setup today in terms of volatility posture / z-score.
Starting Balance$4,026.49
Current Balance$4,500.49
Daily PnL+$474.00
Total Series PnL+$1,500.49
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: ZWAP short
Supporting Context: VXX breakout above PMH and YDH
Management / Exit: Took the initial ZWAP short while VXX broke above PMH and YDH, but the trade failed and stopped out. -$400
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: Re-entry short / key level flush
Supporting Context: Re-entered 699P / PML flush target / Mag7 OB below
Management / Exit: Re-entered the 699P and held for the PML flush. In hindsight, this should have been held longer toward the Mag7 order block for more follow-through. +$874
No clear R4 setup today with all the chop and z-score noise, so the focus had to stay on key levels.
Starting Balance$4,454.06
Current Balance$3,436.06
Daily PnL-$1,018.00
Total Series PnL+$436.06
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: R4-VC breakdown
Supporting Context: OPEX day / breakdown attempt
Management / Exit: Took the initial R4-VC breakdown attempt and got stopped out. -$300
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: R4-VC breakdown re-entry
Supporting Context: Re-entry on the same breakdown idea
Management / Exit: Re-entered for the breakdown and at one point the account was about +$400 net on the day, but the move reversed and gave it all back. In hindsight, pulling the stop up to at least net breakeven would have been the smarter move. -$240
Trade 3
Primary Entry Reason: Short at EM+ for another R4-VC breakdown attempt
Supporting Context: Waited for EM+ hit / looking for breakdown
Management / Exit: Waited until EM+ was hit, then took another short looking for the R4-VC breakdown. A clear gamma ramp showed up on NDX and the trade got stopped out. -$300
In my opinion, the risk was worth taking because OPEX can create some tricky but tradable behavior. Unfortunately, GEX pulled price back. This is why OPEX is usually better treated as a skip day, but with a higher risk appetite I still like to take a shot. Only one day per month — the main rule is just don’t let it wipe you out.
Starting Balance$3,398.88
Current Balance$4,141.88
Daily PnL+$743.00
Total Series PnL+$1,141.88
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: R5-R long reversal
Supporting Context: Just after 9:50am / reversal setup / NDX gamma did not support much higher
Management / Exit: Took the R5-R long reversal just after 9:50am. Exited once it became clear that NDX gamma did not support much more upside continuation. +$542
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: Gamma mean reversion scalp
Supporting Context: Entered near where the long was exited / only looking for a quick mean reversion
Management / Exit: Took a gamma mean reversion trade close to where the long was exited. This was only meant to be a quick gamma scalp. +$201
Trade 3
Primary Entry Reason: EOD gamma scalp / ZWAP short
Supporting Context: Took some of the day’s profits to try for a move to max gamma around 707 / high-risk EOD setup
Management / Exit: No management, just all or nothing. Max gamma changed in the last 10 minutes and ripped back to the PMH key level. -$266
Good example of taking the clean R5-R reversal first, then recognizing that the follow-up trade was only worth a scalp.
Starting Balance$3,835.06
Current Balance$3,112.06
Daily PnL-$723.00
Total Series PnL+$112.06
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: R4-C short
Supporting Context: Flush below PML / looking for continuation lower
Management / Exit: Took the initial R4-C short on the flush below PML, but the move failed and stopped out.
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: R4-C short re-entry
Supporting Context: Re-entry on same breakdown idea / reached about +20% / tried to extend target to order block
Management / Exit: Re-entered the short and had around +20% at one point, but chose to extend the take-profit target to the order block. That ended up being too ambitious, and the trade stopped out back above PML as well.
Didn’t quite have the gamma support needed to push further and ultimately turned into an R4-R long setup.
Starting Balance$3,080.48
Current Balance$2,303.48
Daily PnL-$777.00
Total Series PnL-$696.52
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: Opening short / Mag7 leading
Supporting Context: Immediate short at open / following Mag7 downside leadership / intended 1:1 take-profit adjustment
Management / Exit: Took the short immediately at the open to follow Mag7 leading lower, but ThinkorSwim lagged and had to be restarted. Because of that, I was unable to re-adjust the take-profit back to 1:1 and missed the cleaner exit. The trade ended up stopping out later. -$777
Good reminder that platform issues can be just as costly as market mistakes when managing small-account trades.
Starting Balance$2,270.98
Current Balance$2,484.98
Daily PnL+$214.00
Total Series PnL-$515.02
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: R5-C long
Supporting Context: Long into liquidity
Management / Exit: Took the R5-C long into liquidity.
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: Mean reversion long
Supporting Context: Looking for a move back to the open price / lows
Management / Exit: Entered looking for a mean reversion back to the open price / lows and the take-profit was hit almost immediately after the order was placed.
Trade 3
Primary Entry Reason: R5-C long continuation
Supporting Context: Continuation attempt / later swept lows
Management / Exit: Took the R5-C long continuation, but this one stopped out. Price later ended up sweeping the lows.
Trade 4
Primary Entry Reason: R5-C long continuation
Supporting Context: Targeting order block or EM+ / took profit near YDH
Management / Exit: Took another R5-C long targeting the order block or EM+. Took profit around YDH.
Overall good read and good discipline keeping the day green.
Starting Balance$2,464.54
Current Balance$2,462.54
Daily PnL-$2.00
Total Series PnL-$537.46
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: Bearish momentum flush
Supporting Context: Flush toward order block near PML
Management / Exit: Took the bearish momentum flush into the order block near PML. +$90
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: Short continuation / Bear DIV (EX)
Supporting Context: Re-entry for another flush / Bear DIV (EX) confirmation
Management / Exit: Re-entered short looking for continuation lower based on Bear DIV (EX), but the move failed and stopped out. -$180
Trade 3
Primary Entry Reason: VWAP rejection short
Supporting Context: Re-enter short on rejection at VWAP, small position
Management / Exit: Re-entered short on the VWAP rejection and took the move to the OB target for +$88
Starting Balance$2,434.66
Current Balance$2,805.66
Daily PnL+$371.00
Total Series PnL-$194.34
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: Premarket range long
Supporting Context: PML to PMH idea / initially looked like R1-CC on z-score volatility posture / doubled key levels complicated the read
Management / Exit: Took the long from PML looking to play the premarket range back to PMH, but the entry was a bit late and got stopped out before the move developed.
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: Short after price closed below PDC
Supporting Context: PDC failed to hold / spike into PML / Bullish Div (EX) printed near target
Management / Exit: Took the short once PDC failed to hold. Took profit on the spike around PML. A Bullish Div (EX) also printed there, which made me hesitate to hold longer — and that ended up being the right call, since price bounced hard off PML and back over VWAP.
Trade 3
Primary Entry Reason: ZWAP short bias
Supporting Context: Another rejection of PDC / small position / target was lows around PML and liquidity near 711.65 / SPY gamma pulling hard toward 712 / weak 10:30 manufacturing index accelerated downside momentum
Management / Exit: Took another short after the repeated rejection of PDC and a ZWAP short bias confirmation. The 10:30 manufacturing index release came in well below forecast, which accelerated the downside until a news-related interruption. Target 1 hit, then price dumped below PML where I took profit to avoid any further theta decay.
At first glance this looked like an R1-CC type setup from the z-score volatility posture, but the move up into the doubled key levels invalidated this idea.
Starting Balance$2,843.81
Current Balance$2,744.81
Daily PnL-$99.00
Total Series PnL-$255.19
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: Short at YDL rejection
Supporting Context: Rejection of YDL / downside continuation idea
Management / Exit: Took the short on the rejection of YDL and booked the move for +$200.
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: R5-R reversal long
Supporting Context: Reversal attempt / no RVOL confirmation / setup failed
Management / Exit: Took the R5-R reversal long, but without RVOL the move failed and stopped out. -$299.
No RVOL = lower-quality reversal. Good reminder that not every R5-R is equal. Also notice VXX was selling off with SPY, most likely because traders were waiting for tomorrow’s FOMC and saving the real vol expansion for then.
Starting Balance$2,686.28
Current Balance$2,858.28
Daily PnL+$172.00
Total Series PnL-$141.72
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: Regime 4 long attempt
Supporting Context: No clear volatility posture / positive gamma support / downside already extended to EM- and beneath PDC
Management / Exit: Took the Regime 4 long with positive gamma support, but no especially clear volatility posture. Price had already extended down to EM- and below PDC. The trade got as much as +20%, but I did not take profit and it eventually turned into a loser. -$340
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: R4 long re-entry
Supporting Context: Waited for chop to play out / gamma still supportive / YDL bounce on Mag7
Management / Exit: Waited for some chop to play out, then re-entered the R4 long with gamma still supporting. Took profit earlier than the original target of the open price and bearish OB, though price did continue afterward. +$512
Good reminder that even when gamma support is there, early profit-taking discipline still matters on the first attempt if not an A+ setup.
Starting Balance$2,825.75
Current Balance$3,681.75
Daily PnL+$856.00
Total Series PnL+$681.75
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: Long at open / PMH break day type
Supporting Context: Regime 4 / SPY GEX strongly supporting upward expansion / holding above VWAP / stop loss below VWAP
Management / Exit: Took the long at the open based on the PMH break day type classification and Regime 4. SPY GEX was strongly supporting upward expansion, and price was holding above VWAP, which served as the stop-loss reference. +$821
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: Long out of ZWAP short bias exit
Supporting Context: SPY GEX pulling at 724 / continuation long / wanted to protect gains
Management / Exit: Took the long once ZWAP short bias exited. SPY GEX was pulling toward 724. Took +$35 and was stopped out in profit after the first SPY GEX level was hit because I did not want to give back any profits.
Strong example of letting the day type and gamma context justify holding for the cleaner expansion move, while still protecting gains on the later continuation attempt.
Starting Balance$3,644.60
Current Balance$3,284.60
Daily PnL-$360.00
Total Series PnL+$284.60
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: Short after PDC rejection / R5-C long (z-score increasing from negative with price)
Supporting Context: PDC rejection / initially worked but did not quite reach 20% / SPY GEX later reversed
Management / Exit: Took the short after the PDC rejection. The trade went into profit, but not quite enough to hit the usual 20% area. Later, SPY GEX reversed and the trade stopped out. -$600
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: Long on PDC recovery
Supporting Context: PDC recovery / SPY GEX pulling / smaller position size / PMH target
Management / Exit: Took the long on the PDC recovery with SPY GEX pulling higher. Used a much smaller position size and moved the stop loss up to around 70% profit. The target was PMH, which was reached. +$240
SPY ended up reversing at PMH and then sank fast back below PDC, which would have been an excellent long puts trade in hindsight (was AFK).
Starting Balance$3,257.64
Current Balance$2,767.64
Daily PnL-$490.00
Total Series PnL-$232.36
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: Long on bullish day type / PMH breakout
Supporting Context: Bullish day type classification / PMH breakout / SPY GEX pulling higher
Management / Exit: Took the long based on the bullish day type classification, PMH breakout, and SPY GEX pulling upward. +$120
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: Short for PMH failure / gap fill attempt
Supporting Context: Looking for flush back below PMH and later gap fill / extended R:R width to allow more room / PMH-YDH held firm
Management / Exit: Took the short looking for a flush back below PMH and a later gap fill, with a wider risk/reward allowance to give the trade more room. But PMH/YDH held firm, just as we laid out in #gameplan during premarket. The short failed. -$610
The options selling strategy ended up being the big winner today because of how firmly PMH/YDH held.
Starting Balance$2,739.75
Current Balance$3,226.75
Daily PnL+$487.00
Total Series PnL+$226.75
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: Long on SPY GEX / ZWAP long bias
Supporting Context: SPY GEX support / ZWAP long bias / targeting quick base hit
Management / Exit: Took the long with SPY GEX supporting and ZWAP long bias confirmed. The goal was just a quick 20% style move. +$440
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: Short scalp on weakness
Supporting Context: Double-top candle wicks / ZWAP long bias exited / gamma still too strong for deeper target / small position size
Management / Exit: Took a small short after weakness showed up through the double-top candle wicks and ZWAP long bias exited. Considered extending the target all the way down near PDC, but gamma was too strong, so I kept it as a scalp. The bracket order hit take-profit while I had to shut the laptop to catch a flight. +$85
Trade 3
Primary Entry Reason: Very small short scalp
Supporting Context: SPY GEX pull toward 732 / R2 PMH breakout tends to run
Management / Exit: Took a very small short scalp to the 732 level due to SPY GEX. The trade stopped out. R2 PMH breakout tends to run. -$38
Good example of keeping size small on the later counter-move attempt instead of forcing a bigger short against strong conditions.
Starting Balance$3,204.42
Current Balance$3,693.42
Daily PnL+$489.00
Total Series PnL+$693.42
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: ZWAP short to gap fill
Supporting Context: Thursday tendency for higher fill rate / rejection of PDC / targeting normal base-hit take profit
Management / Exit: Took the ZWAP short looking for the gap fill. Took profit around the normal 20% take-profit area before price reversed hard. Later in the morning, price came back down, fully filled the gap, and eventually reached EM-. The rejection of PDC leading into the move was clean. +$489
Good example of taking the clean base hit even though the later move extended much further.
Starting Balance$3,653.49
Current Balance$2,424.49
Daily PnL-$1,229.00
Total Series PnL-$575.51
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: Short for gap fill / liquidity grab
Supporting Context: Looking for a gap fill to get liquidity, then a hard bounce to stay above PDC by close
Management / Exit: Took the short looking for a gap fill and liquidity sweep before a larger bounce back above PDC into the close. VXX did increase all morning, but it remained broken like it has been all week, so it was not especially useful for cleaner confirmation. The trade failed and finished -$1,229.
This is exactly what people mean when they say traders have to adapt to the market.
Starting Balance$2,405.88
Current Balance$2,866.88
Daily PnL+$461.00
Total Series PnL-$133.12
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: Regime 1 PMH breakout
Supporting Context: Two 5-min closes above PMH confirmed / classic Regime 1 breakout / NDX gamma ramp supported continuation
Management / Exit: Took the classic Regime 1 PMH breakout after two 5-minute closes above PMH confirmed the move. Could have held longer for more of the NDX gamma ramp, but still locked in a solid gain. +$461
Good reminder that the clean, confirmed setups are still the backbone of the framework.
Starting Balance$2,839.00
Current Balance$3,209.00
Daily PnL+$370.00
Total Series PnL+$209.00
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: ZWAP short / R5 opening short
Supporting Context: R5 opening short / target was PML area
Management / Exit: Took the ZWAP short on the R5 opening short and rode it into the PML area. +$500
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: Short continuation below PML
Supporting Context: Looking for continuation below PML / target was order block / missed entry by one candle
Management / Exit: Took another short looking for continuation below PML with the order block as the target. Entry was late by about one candle, and the trade stopped out. The target was later hit anyway. -$130
Discipline still matters, even when the broader read is correct.
🦊 Day 35
Skipped yesterday due to travel.
🟢 Green Day
Starting Balance$3,181.12
Current Balance$3,551.12
Daily PnL+$370.00
Total Series PnL+$551.12
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: R4-VC long
Supporting Context: YDH reclaim / looking for continuation higher
Management / Exit: Took the R4-VC long after the YDH reclaim and booked profit around the usual +20% area.
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: Long re-entry on VWAP bounce
Supporting Context: VWAP bounce / target into order block near PMH
Management / Exit: Re-entered long on the VWAP bounce into the order block near PMH. PMH was ultimately hit and price pushed above it.
Good follow-through on the R4-VC structure once YDH reclaimed and VWAP held.
Starting Balance$3,529.69
Current Balance$4,272.69
Daily PnL+$743.00
Total Series PnL+$1,272.69
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: R5-R opening short / ZWAP short confirmation
Supporting Context: Classic R5-R day / short into PML area
Management / Exit: Took the R5-R opening short with ZWAP short confirmation and took profit around the PML area before the actual PML flush. +$920
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: R5-R reversal long
Supporting Context: Much smaller position / late entry due to ToS issues
Management / Exit: Tried to catch the R5-R reversal long with much smaller size, but technical issues in ThinkorSwim caused a late entry and the trade ended up being a loss. -$177
No GEX used today — just z-score behavior and key levels.
Starting Balance$4,244.76
Current Balance$5,304.76
Daily PnL+$1,060.00
Total Series PnL+$2,304.76
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: R5 opening short / ZWAP short bias
Supporting Context: Perfect R5 day / target was doubled key levels around PDC and YDL
Management / Exit: Took the short a few minutes after the open with ZWAP short bias confirmation. Targeted the doubled key levels around PDC / YDL and took profit there.
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: R5 reversal long scalp
Supporting Context: Reversal out of doubled key levels / smaller position / ZWAP short bias exit confirmed the entry
Management / Exit: Took the smaller long scalp for the reversal once ZWAP short bias exited. Extended the target beyond the usual 20% area toward Y-mid, which was hit.
PMH was hit not long after the Trade 2 exit. Today had R5-C statistics under the hood, but the actual price action looked much more like R5-R. According to the z-score, there was no exponential decay.
Starting Balance$5,235.00
Current Balance$5,245.00
Daily PnL+$10.00
Total Series PnL+$2,245.00
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: ZWAP short / R1 PML breakout
Supporting Context: Looking for continuation lower through PML
Management / Exit: Took the ZWAP short on the R1 PML breakout attempt. After the move developed, I pulled the stop loss up tighter. The trade ended up stopping out on the tighter stop.
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: Second attempt at PML flush
Supporting Context: Looking for the continuation move lower after the first stop
Management / Exit: Took another attempt at the PML flush. Again, I tightened the stop as the trade developed, and it stopped out before the full move completed. About a minute later, price finished the move I was looking for.
Very tricky price action today. It was still the right decision to keep stops tight and stay disciplined. The important part is not to push in unclear conditions.
Starting Balance$5,217.06
Current Balance$5,836.06
Daily PnL+$619.00
Total Series PnL+$2,836.06
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: R4 Y-mid re-test and bounce long
Supporting Context: Y-mid held / looking for continuation higher
Management / Exit: Took the long on the R4 Y-mid re-test and bounce. Closed the trade for +$319.
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: Long re-entry on small pullback
Supporting Context: Looking for continuation / doubled key levels as target / bearish divergence later appeared
Management / Exit: Re-entered long on the small pullback to continue the move. Price did not quite reach the doubled key levels, and a perfect bearish divergence signal showed up before a large retrace. Closed for +$300.
Good example of see profit, take profit. After the long profits were taken, price action became very choppy, likely due to NVDA earnings after hours, which tends to create less clean price action.
Starting Balance$5,808.12
Current Balance$6,798.12
Daily PnL+$990.00
Total Series PnL+$3,798.12
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: Regime 4 Y-mid reclaim long
Supporting Context: Some supporting positive gamma / deeply negative z-score with exponential decay / ready to explode
Management / Exit: Took the Regime 4 Y-mid reclaim long with some supporting positive gamma. A rare deeply negative z-score with exponential decay suggested the move was ready to explode. Closed for +$990.
Good example of a high-conviction setup where the z-score posture and key level reclaim aligned cleanly.
Starting Balance$6,742.12
Current Balance$7,341.12
Daily PnL+$599.00
Total Series PnL+$4,341.12
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: Regime 4 long / Expanded Typical day type
Supporting Context: Open price breach / Expanded Typical classification / PMH breakout target / added into strength
Management / Exit: Once the open price was breached and the Expanded Typical day type became clear, it was safe to lean long and target a PMH breakout. Added into strength along the way. The fills were not ideal, but profit is profit. +$599
Good example of trusting the day type once the structure is clear. And getting out early to avoid Friday chop.
🦊 Day 42
Yesterday was Memorial Day.
🟢 Green Day
Starting Balance$7,276.29
Current Balance$7,709.29
Daily PnL+$433.00
Total Series PnL+$4,709.29
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: Long after opening selloff recovered above open price
Supporting Context: Opening sell then reclaim of open / target was order block
Management / Exit: Took the long once price sold off early and then recovered back above the open price. Target was the order block. Took profit a little before the OB; in hindsight, this could have been held fully through. +$480
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: Second long attempt on pullback
Supporting Context: Smaller position / tight stop / VXX re-tested PML
Management / Exit: Took a second long attempt on the pullback with a smaller position and tight stop. VXX ended up re-testing PML, which pushed SPY a bit below VWAP before bouncing and stopping out the trade. In hindsight, more attention should have been paid to VXX, but price action had also become much choppier by then. -$47
Good example of taking the cleaner first move and recognizing that the follow-up attempt came in a much choppier environment.
Starting Balance$7,634.98
Current Balance$6,114.98
Daily PnL-$1,520.00
Total Series PnL+$3,114.98
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: R4 open reclaim long test
Supporting Context: R4 open reclaim (programming error)
Management / Exit: Tried testing a new R4 long strategy based on the open reclaim, but I realized too late that the strategy logic had been programmed incorrectly. The entry was taken too early. The rule was supposed to require a 5-minute close back above the open before entering.
Notice how all the candle closes remained below PML.
Starting Balance$6,059.22
Current Balance$6,060.22
Daily PnL+$1.00
Total Series PnL+$3,060.22
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: ZWAP short
Supporting Context: Proceeded cautiously because key levels were very close together and Thinkorswim reported R1 while TradingView reported R5
Management / Exit: Took the ZWAP short and booked +$320.
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: ZWAP short continuation / R5-E sell setup
Supporting Context: Targeting the doubled PML/YDL levels / clear forward negative gamma ramp on NDX, but positive gamma still prevented the move from pushing through cleanly
Management / Exit: Took the ZWAP short continuation to the doubled PML/YDL levels as an R5-E sell setup. I also saw a clear forward negative gamma ramp on NDX that looked capable of propelling price lower, but the positive gamma still held enough to keep us from pushing below cleanly. A large spike up then stopped the trade out. -$319
Very messy price action today with no z-score patterns. Definitely a skip day.
Starting Balance$6,060.22
Current Balance$6,871.22
Daily PnL+$811.00
Total Series PnL+$3,871.22
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: R4 long at open
Supporting Context: Strong NDX gamma ramp
Management / Exit: Took the R4 long at the open on a strong NDX gamma ramp. +$600
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: Long continuation
Supporting Context: Second push higher / unfortunately missed the main second pump by a few seconds
Management / Exit: Took the second long continuation entry, but missed the main second pump by a few seconds, so only captured a smaller piece. +$80
Trade 3
Primary Entry Reason: ZWAP short
Supporting Context: PMH re-test / flush toward doubled levels and OB
Management / Exit: Took the ZWAP short trade for the PMH re-test / flush toward the doubled levels and order block. +$131
Just a perfect NDX ramp setup. That's it.
Starting Balance$6,871.22
Current Balance$6,460.22
Daily PnL-$411.00
Total Series PnL+$3,460.22
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: Long out of the PML/YDL bounce in Regime 4
Management / Exit: +$280
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: Early long re-entry to catch full move above Y-mid
Management / Exit: -$259
Supporting Context: SPY closed 1 cent above Y-mid. Not convincing enough.
Trade 3
Primary Entry Reason: Short off of Y-mid rejection
Supporting Context: Target was the order block below the doubled PML/YDL levels
Management / Exit: Thinkorswim server stopped working. Bad entry to start. Got stopped out, but not on the full position size, which led to worse losses than necessary. Stop loss should have been above PDC. -$432
A good example of broker issues screwing you over. A reminder that once you get to large accounts, this could be extremely costly, so be smart with your position sizing later in your trading career.
Starting Balance$6,222.43
Current Balance$7,186.43
Daily PnL+$964.00
Total Series PnL+$4,186.43
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: Regime 1 long
Supporting Context: Premarket wicked PML and continued up from there / targeted the doubled PMH-PDC liquidity zone
Management / Exit: Took the long as price continued higher off the premarket PML wick.
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: PMH reclaim long re-entry
Supporting Context: Strong PMH reclaim / high-probability Mag7 Regime 3 rotation back up into yesterday’s range / SPY led the move / backed by ZWAP long bias
Management / Exit: Re-entered on the PMH reclaim and rode the continuation higher.
Perfect example of ignoring VXX when it was not giving useful confirmation and instead respecting Mag7 Regime 3 tendencies and SPY price action.
Starting Balance$7,118.62
Current Balance$7,067.62
Daily PnL-$51.00
Total Series PnL+$4,067.62
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: R1 PML breakdown with ZWAP confirmation
Supporting Context: Super clean R1 PML break and hold
Management / Exit: Exited too early and left a lot of the move on the table. +$310
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: Small long off 756 defense
Supporting Context: 756 looked defended and targeted the opposite strong GEX of the day and the PMH-PDC liquidity zone / full premium at risk
Management / Exit: Small position. The trade failed for full premium risk. -$361
Super good R1 PML breakdown, but operator error came from not getting the ideal entry and then managing it too conservatively. NDX GEX did not show a downside ramp, which caused hesitation, but the bigger miss was ignoring the large positive NDX GEX sitting below price that ended up acting like the magnet and pulled SPY down to EM-.
Starting Balance$7,067.62
Current Balance$8,023.55
Daily PnL+$1,021.00
Total Series PnL+$5,023.55
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: Regime 3 long immediately at open
Supporting Context: Bounce out of the order block / bullish Regime 3 tendency
Management / Exit: Took profit at the +20% limit order. +$600
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: Long re-entry on small pullback
Supporting Context: VXX tapped YDL / targeted continuation higher, but without supporting positive gamma
Management / Exit: Took profit above PMH but before YDH due to the lack of supporting positive gamma. +$421
While Regime 3 is not exactly in our formal playbook, we know from experience these days often lean bullish and mean revert back into yesterday’s range if strength holds. We did not get the ideal early PMH hold confirmation, but still captured the main directional move well.
Starting Balance$8,023.55
Current Balance$8,879.91
Daily PnL+$940.00
Total Series PnL+$5,879.91
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: R1-CC setup with ZWAP short bias
Supporting Context: Rare R1-CC setup / technical difficulties kept me from getting the exact fill I wanted
Management / Exit: Took the short and still locked in nice profit. +$640
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: Short re-entry on small pullback
Supporting Context: Smaller size / should have held longer
Management / Exit: Re-entered short on the pullback and booked +$300
Perfect R1-CC sell-off. The extrinsic z-score volatility posture showed exponential decay, followed by the move selling off below PML.
Starting Balance$8,842.63
Current Balance$10,362.63
Daily PnL+$1,520.00
Total Series PnL+$7,362.63
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: Regime 1 short from PMH after spiked z-score settled toward zero
Supporting Context: Move into and beyond the first / closest order block and into max negative GEX on NDX
Management / Exit: Took the short from PMH and captured the move through the first order block and into the max negative GEX area on NDX. +$1,520
NDX negative GEX ended up pinning SPY between the two major negative GEX areas, which is why we did not get the full morning range extension down to PML.
Starting Balance$10,306.78
Current Balance$11,322.78
Daily PnL+$1,016.00
Total Series PnL+$8,322.78
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: Regime 1 long on PMH breakout
Supporting Context: Lots of positive NDX GEX / premarket gap-up added bullish context / immediate climb into PMH into the open / VXX had a doubled level below that could act as a volatility magnet
Management / Exit: Took the Regime 1 PMH breakout long for approximately 10%. Should have held longer. +$1,016
Clean bullish Regime 1 continuation with strong positive NDX GEX behind it. Premarket structure already leaned bullish, and once PMH broke there was no reason to fight it. Z-score pattern should have been trusted more to hold longer. Green days do not always mean execution was as good as it should have been.
Starting Balance$11,322.78
Current Balance$12,726.17
Daily PnL+$1,450.00
Total Series PnL+$9,726.17
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: Regime 1 short into negative GEX ramp on NDX
Supporting Context: Negative NDX GEX ramp supported the flush
Management / Exit: Took the short and booked +$1,200.
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: Regime 1 long to max positive GEX
Supporting Context: ZWAP short bias had already exited / target was max positive GEX
Management / Exit: Took the long and the target was hit, but I moved the stop loss above breakeven to secure gains and got taken out early. +$250.
NDX GEX helped a lot with the moves today despite being mixed. Liquidity below looked like it had already been taken in premarket, so the more favorable trade was probably the long to PMH, but the short ended up printing more. Premiums were also very high this morning because of CPI premarket, but that did not stop us.
Starting Balance$12,726.17
Current Balance$13,139.42
Daily PnL+$471.00
Total Series PnL+$10,139.42
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: Short to PML with GEX momentum
Management / Exit: Took the short to PML and booked +$505.
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: Short to liquidity area and gap fill
Supporting Context: High-conviction continuation idea / target was the liquidity area and gap fill / hoped for continuation to the next OB and potentially the May 5th gap near 718
Management / Exit: The trade went into drawdown, but conviction stayed high so it was held until +20% profit, then the stop loss was moved to breakeven. VXX order block resistance ended up holding and the trade stopped out around breakeven. -$34
Good example of why taking +20% is generally advised. The continuation idea was there, but once VXX OB held as resistance, the market did not give the extra follow-through.
Starting Balance$13,139.42
Current Balance$8,967.05
Daily PnL-$4,098.00
Total Series PnL+$5,967.05
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: Long for potential R4-R reversal
Supporting Context: Timed a bit too early / actual bottom came closer to 9:50am before the reversal
Management / Exit: Entered early for the R4-R reversal attempt and got punished before the actual turn. -$2,278
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: Short for R4-C continuation
Supporting Context: Visible GEX ramps below suggested continuation potential
Management / Exit: The trade chopped around and then got hit by a massive volatility spike to the upside. -$1,819
The day opened with a sharp move toward the order block below, which should have been taken, but hesitation cost us. We loosened the reins a bit to take advantage of added volatility from the SpaceX IPO and possible spillover into the broader market, but instead it turned into a chop fest. Political war headlines added even more volatility and made the session extremely unstable.
Starting Balance$8,891.73
Current Balance$10,344.73
Daily PnL+$1,453.00
Total Series PnL+$7,344.73
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: Long on PMH break in Regime 2
Supporting Context: Backed by all positive GEX on NDX and a bullish day type classification on SPY
Management / Exit: Took the PMH break long and rode the move higher.
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: Long re-entry
Supporting Context: Final target was EM+
Management / Exit: Re-entered long, but got stopped out by one cent in profit and missed the second wave.
Trade 3
Primary Entry Reason: Long runner
Supporting Context: Targeted EM+ / NDX max gamma
Management / Exit: Took the long runner to EM+ / NDX max gamma for +30%.
Absolutely perfect z-score pattern for a vol-crush setup with SPY price going up. A+ setup.
Starting Balance$10,214.66
Current Balance$12,935.66
Daily PnL+$2,721.00
Total Series PnL+$9,935.66
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: Regime 1 PMH rejection short
Supporting Context: Pre-FOMC price action expected to be choppy / targeted the move from PMH toward PML / price kept trying to push to the max GEX above
Management / Exit: Took the Regime 1 PMH rejection short looking for the move to PML, but got stopped out after the third spike above PMH. -$1,160
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: Short re-entry with ZWAP short bias confirmation
Supporting Context: Still no PML touch / GEX ramp below as target / Bear Div (EX) printed and that was where size was added to get full
Management / Exit: Re-entered short once ZWAP short bias confirmed. Added on the Bear Div (EX) signal and held through the PML flush. Original target at the GEX ramp below was hit and would have printed significantly more. +$3,881
Good reminder that pre-FOMC mornings can stay choppy longer than expected, but once the cleaner confirmation came in, the short idea was still right. The re-entry was the real trade.
Starting Balance$12,907.73
Current Balance$13,327.73
Daily PnL+$420.00
Total Series PnL+$10,327.73
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: Regime 1 PML to PMH bounce
Supporting Context: Waited for the mini negative GEX ramp to hit first, then longed out of the major clustered support area / gameplan was to let the re-test happen into PML, YDL, and PDC / medium size position
Management / Exit: Took the long out of the clustered support zone and booked profit. Profit was taken a bit too soon, but the stop was dragged above breakeven and later got hit. No regrets given the FOMC morning conditions. +$420
No regrets on the early exit. We know how FOMC mornings can behave, and this was a clean take from the support cluster. Good example of respecting the gameplan, taking the bounce, and not overstaying.
Starting Balance$13,243.97
Current Balance$14,954.97
Daily PnL+$1,711.00
Total Series PnL+$11,954.97
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: Regime 1 PMH rejection
Supporting Context: Z-score spiked high and faded back toward zero as SPY fell / classic Regime 1 behavior
Management / Exit: Entered short and took profit around VWAP. +$1,360
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: Short re-entry on BEAR DIV (EX)
Supporting Context: Re-entered after restarting ToS because of the Schwab 1-minute chart delay / scalp back into the order block / best case was a flush below EM- into PML to complete the more typical R1 range
Management / Exit: Took profit early due to hesitation, which ended up being the right move. +$351
Very nice A setup from z-score and Regime 1 behavior. This is what we call the R1-D setup. PML never actually hit in the morning session because the -1 sigma expected move level was slightly above PML today. Nice way to close out the week with Friday being a U.S. holiday.
Starting Balance$14,954.97
Current Balance$14,758.77
Daily PnL-$196.20
Total Series PnL+$11,758.77
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: Regime 1 short on BEAR DIV (EX)
Supporting Context: Clean BEAR DIV (EX) signal / perfect 20% gain
Management / Exit: Took the short and booked the clean 20% gain early. Would have been a great place to end the day.
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: Long for max GEX continuation
Supporting Context: Compared price action to the January 28, 2026 barcoding-type day / noticed price broke for new highs after 10am on that session / took the long slightly OTM
Management / Exit: Took the long looking for continuation to max GEX, but the trade stopped out.
Trade 3
Primary Entry Reason: Long re-entry off defended level
Supporting Context: The stop-out area appeared defended and GEX was still present
Management / Exit: Re-entered long and worked the account back to roughly breakeven on the day. Took profit at new high of day. Right after exit, price reversed hard back toward the doubled key levels near the open and below VWAP.
Overall, not too dissatisfied with today’s outcome. We got early gains and took a reasonable shot at pressing for more, but the price action stayed extremely choppy and did not reward the added push.
Starting Balance$14,758.77
Current Balance$15,737.25
Daily PnL+$1,053.00
Total Series PnL+$12,737.25
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: Regime 3 short
Supporting Context: Early R3 weak behavior when opening near PML
Management / Exit: Took the short and caught the flush into PML.
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: VWAP short re-entry
Supporting Context: Continuation for PML flush
Management / Exit: Went into profit and at one point doubled Trade 1’s gain, then price pivoted hard. Let the stop loss hit and gave back Trade 1’s gains.
Trade 3
Primary Entry Reason: Long after two PML wicks
Supporting Context: Regime 3 bullish bias resumed once PML was clearly defended / target was EM+
Management / Exit: Took the long after the double PML wick defense. Moved stop loss up on the strong push higher and got stopped out in profit before the stall just under EM+.
The important part was recognizing that R3 dominant behavior was bullish once PML was defended. We reversed course when the short thesis failed, and also recognized that the EM level was sitting around PMH rather than stretching all the way to YDL, so overstaying the long above PMH would not have made sense.
Starting Balance$15,737.25
Current Balance$17,053.46
Daily PnL+$1,400.00
Total Series PnL+$14,053.46
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: Regime 1 PML to PMH move
Supporting Context: Strong opening move / captured the bulk of the main expansion
Management / Exit: Took the main PML to PMH move and captured most of it. +$1,239
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: Bear Div (Ex) short around PMH
Supporting Context: PMH area rejection / some hesitation
Management / Exit: Took profit a second early before the real dump. +$80
Trade 3
Primary Entry Reason: Short re-entry for PML flush into gap
Supporting Context: Looking for continuation into PML and the gap / hesitation due to mixed GEX
Management / Exit: Took profit early before a bounce that likely would have stopped the trade out anyway. +$81
PML ended up hitting several minutes later, but confidence was lower because GEX was fairly mixed. The important part was capitalizing on the main high-certainty PML to PMH move at the open and then calling it a day. After the later PML touch, price also aggressively completed another PML to PMH move within seconds, which just reinforces how tradable that core range was today. This is the best way to do it. Take the high-certainty moves and get out. No need to be perfect.
Starting Balance$16,951.13
Current Balance$17,032.13
Daily PnL+$81.00
Total Series PnL+$14,032.13
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: Regime 1 A+ short at open
Supporting Context: Doubled PMH/YDH level / VXX in Regime 3 / bearish day type classification / all signals pointed to a strong opening short
Management / Exit: Took the main short and booked profit on the PML flush. +$1,400
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: Short continuation re-entry
Supporting Context: Looked to re-enter with roughly the same size as Trade 1
Management / Exit: The poke back above PML stopped the trade out and gave back about the same amount as Trade 1’s gains. -$1,400
Trade 3
Primary Entry Reason: Small short continuation
Supporting Context: Very small size, mainly to get the day back above breakeven
Management / Exit: Took profit too early and did not hold long enough. +$81
An absolute perfect A+ short setup that only shows up a few times per month, but the continuation trade was handled too tightly and too quickly. Nothing wrong with taking profit on Trade 1. The real issue was taking Trade 2 a bit hastily, which led to a poor stop placement. Waiting a little longer for confirmation would have been ideal. This easily could have been a much bigger day.
Starting Balance$17,032.13
Current Balance$15,539.88
Daily PnL-$1,389.00
Total Series PnL+$12,539.88
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: Regime 5 opening short
Supporting Context: Bearish day type confirmation / targeted move to PML
Management / Exit: Took the opening short and caught the move into PML. +$1,081
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: Short continuation re-entry
Supporting Context: Looked for continuation lower after the initial flush
Management / Exit: Re-entered short and got stopped out. Same continuation mistake as yesterday. -$1,400
Trade 3
Primary Entry Reason: Third short re-entry
Supporting Context: Negative GEX created choppy price action and the z-score appeared flat at the time
Management / Exit: Took another short attempt and got stopped out again. -$540
Trade 4
Primary Entry Reason: Fourth short re-entry
Supporting Context: Very small size / still targeting another PML flush as long as high of day held on the 5-minute chart
Management / Exit: By this point it was too late. The exponential z-score setup was already there and the bigger move up was coming. -$530
The reason for so many short attempts today was the bearish day type classification, which generally has a high probability of being correct on overall bias unless it gets aggressively rejected at PML. Today the PML defense was not especially aggressive, but more indecisive. The main error today was not realizing soon enough that this had an exponential z-score setup and thus R5-R, which is exactly what we predicted in premarket due to VXX structure. My options chart was too stretched out, which made the z-score look flatter than it really was. As soon as z-score got to around -1, SPY broke out strongly. We also missed the doubled PDC / Y-mid level on SPY. Another day where the system still had the answer, but execution fell short.
