🦊 Day 1
Skipped the prior day due to Regime 6 / no trade.
🟢 Green Day
Starting Balance$3,000
Current Balance$3,727
Daily PnL+$727
Total Series PnL+$727
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: ZWAP
Supporting Context: PML flush / bearish bias / negative gamma
Management / Exit: Took a ZWAP bearish bias PML flush scalp with 20x 646P. Took profit around the usual 20%–30% gain window for +$340.
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: Volatility posture / z-score
Supporting Context: R5-R reversal / OB target
Management / Exit: Took an R5-R reversal long into the OB with 10x 653C. Took profit around the usual 20%–30% gain window for +$387.
Could have held the R5-R longer, but there was still quite a bit of negative gamma on NDX, so I stayed conservative. Target was VXX OB, which was hit.
Starting Balance$3,705.71
Current Balance$4,577.43
Daily PnL+$932
Total Series PnL+$1,659
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: ZWAP
Supporting Context: Early R4-VC reversal (likely due to gap-up open)
Management / Exit: Took a ZWAP short scalp to YDH. Signs of an unusually early R4-VC reversal, likely caused by the gap-up open. Targeted YDH key level exit. +$500
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: PML key level momentum
Supporting Context: PML flush / 10am hammer / R4-R
Management / Exit: Took the PML flush into the 10am hammer candle for the R4-R setup. +$362
Trade 3
Primary Entry Reason: Volatility posture / z-score, R4-R 10am behavior
Supporting Context: 10am confirmed hammer / R4-R / chop
Management / Exit: Took far OTM calls on the confirmed 10am hammer candle to catch the R4-R reversal while reducing some of the chop volatility. Exited early for +$70 after realizing I went a bit too far OTM to capture the short-term move.
Starting Balance$4,577.43
Current Balance$5,127.79
Daily PnL+$606
Total Series PnL+$2,265
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: ZWAP
Supporting Context: R5-R opening short
Management / Exit: Took a short scalp into the OB (above PML) for +$386.
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: Volatility posture / z-score
Supporting Context: ~9:45 long / ZWAP short bias exit
Management / Exit: Took the long around 9:45 for +$220. Very quick, strong candle.
Overall a pretty straightforward day. Our favorite setup, really: R5-R. Short first (optional), then long around 9:45 and let the session do the rest. Did I sell early? 100%, yes. For the sake of the small account challenge, the goal is to compound the account — not necessarily squeeze the full move, but lock in safer gains early and keep the curve growing.
Starting Balance$5,127.79
Current Balance$5,655.79
Daily PnL+$528
Total Series PnL+$2,655.79
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: ZWAP
Supporting Context: Weak R5-R setup / z-score around -4 at open / PML flush
Management / Exit: Took a ZWAP short / PML flush for +$520.
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: Bearish OB rejection
Supporting Context: Bearish OB tap and reject / negative gamma / BULL DIV (EX) on monitored contract
Management / Exit: Correctly identified the bearish OB tap and reject, but hesitated on the entry and fat-fingered 1 contract instead of 10. Seeing a BULL DIV (EX) on the specific contract I was watching also spooked me, so I exited near breakeven for +$8.
After that hesitation, I chose not to re-enter short and called it a day. In hindsight, that was still a good decision with price later chopping just below EM-. Main issue: execution and hesitation, not the read.
Starting Balance$5,655.79
Current Balance$1,977.51
Daily PnL-$3,580.00
Total Series PnL-$1,022.49
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: ZWAP short continuation
Supporting Context: Missed original ZWAP short / negative gamma still strong / higher probability of hitting PML and possibly flushing further
Management / Exit: Shorted into the consolidation after missing the cleaner initial ZWAP short entry. Stop loss was a close above Y-mid. Averaged down into the choppy consolidation, which turned it into a much larger loss than it should have been.
This was a good example of the downside of going close to 1:1 sizing in a small account. It hurts much more when the clean entry is missed and the trade is pressed into chop. And of course, after stopping out on the close above Y-mid, price dumped right back below it. Main issue: averaging down into chop after missing the cleaner first entry.
Starting Balance$1,962.72
Current Balance$2,103.72
Daily PnL+$141
Total Series PnL-$896.28
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: Volatility posture / z-score
Supporting Context: PMH rejection / high starting z-score / SPY bearish OB confluence with QQQ EM+
Management / Exit: Initial short entry was for PMH rejection with a high starting z-score, but the timing was early and the move failed at first. Price pushed up into SPY’s bearish OB, which also lined up with QQQ EM+. From there, the double rejection brought price back down into the main NDX gamma and SPY opening order block, allowing the trade to recover and finish +$141.
We timed the short too early, but the mean reversion back into the opening order block gave us the chance to recover. Good example of the idea being right, but the timing being off.
Starting Balance$2,085.18
Current Balance$2,315.18
Daily PnL+$230
Total Series PnL-$684.82
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: Momentum, order block liquidity
Supporting Context: Opening long / target at bearish OB above / bearish divergence signal on exit
Management / Exit: Took a long right off the open targeting the bearish OB above. Exited early due to a bearish divergence signal, though the target was hit several minutes later. +$150
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: Short momentum / mean reversion scalp
Supporting Context: Rejection of bearish OB
Management / Exit: Took a short momentum trade off the rejection of the bearish OB, targeting a mean reversion. Because NDX positive gamma remained persistent throughout, this was treated as just a scalp rather than something to press. +$80
Did not want to overstay in Regime 2, since we do not have any strict setups for it in the playbook.
Starting Balance$2,315.18
Current Balance$2,530.18
Daily PnL+$215
Total Series PnL-$469.82
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: ZWAP short bias, negative z-score decay
Supporting Context: Deeply negative z-score / exponential decay / falling SPY price
Management / Exit: Took a ZWAP short bias entry with deeply negative z-score, exponential decay, and falling SPY price all aligned. Scaled out slightly early, exiting right above the order block for +$215, mainly to avoid the risk of positive gamma bouncing price. That bounce did end up happening very soon afterward, back above VWAP.
Good example of taking the cleaner scalp and not overstaying when gamma conditions could interfere with continuation, especially in a volatile Regime 3.
Starting Balance$2,497.73
Current Balance$2,658.25
Daily PnL+$160.52
Total Series PnL-$341.75
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: ZWAP short bias / R4-C
Supporting Context: Near open / possible PML flush / uncertainty around OB hold
Management / Exit: Took the short near the open based on ZWAP short bias and possible PML flush for the R4-C play. Took profits around +25% because I was not fully confident the order block would hold. It did hold, but I chose to realize the gain. +$360
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: Long toward PMH/YDH magnet
Supporting Context: PMH/YDH magnet / strong cross of PML on VXX / spike above order block zone
Management / Exit: Took the long toward the PMH/YDH magnet. Also noticed VXX crossed PML quite strongly, which reinforced the idea that price would spike above the magnet / order block zone. +$183
Trade 3
Primary Entry Reason: Persistent forward negative gamma ramp on NDX
Supporting Context: Bearish OB rejection / two untapped order blocks below / no EM level hit on the day yet / note: not below PML, conviction low
Management / Exit: Targeted one of the lower OBs or EM- for an end-of-day flush. Small position without a hard stop loss, though 660+ would have been the clear invalidation. -$376
Decided to play with a little bit of house money, because sometimes that’s what you have to do to grow a small account. Not ideal, and not something I’d recommend for larger accounts.
Starting Balance$2,635.01
Current Balance$3,027.01
Daily PnL+$392
Total Series PnL+$27.01
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: ZWAP short bias, GEX support
Supporting Context: YDL area / path toward PML / Regime 6 / not ideal negative gamma ramp
Management / Exit: Took a ZWAP and GEX-supported short from the YDL area down toward PML. Even though this was Regime 6, which is normally a skip because it is not in the playbook, the ZWAP and gamma context were enough to justify the entry. Exited early because the negative gamma ramp was not ideal. +$392
Good example of bending the usual skip rule only when there is enough supporting context to justify it, while still staying conservative on the exit.
Starting Balance$3,027.01
Current Balance$3,091.60
Daily PnL+$111
Total Series PnL+$91.60
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: ZWAP short confirmation
Supporting Context: Regime 2 / tendency to work back toward prior day’s range / NDX positive gamma with a backward ramp beginning at the open / PML flush target / lower position size due to chop
Management / Exit: Once we saw the NDX gamma structure, it confirmed that a slow bleed was possible. We targeted a PML flush with ZWAP short confirmation. Lots of chop. EM- was the ideal target, but the break through the order block was too slow, so there was increasing risk of a bounce. +$111
Regime 2 is normally a skip, but these days often try to work back toward the previous day’s range. Lower-conviction = lower size.
Starting Balance$3,091.60
Current Balance$3,758.62
Daily PnL+$732
Total Series PnL+$758.62
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: PMH breakout
Supporting Context: Regime 1 / PMH breakout / forward positive gamma ramp on NDX / upgraded from B setup to A setup due to GEX context
Management / Exit: Took the PMH breakout in Regime 1, supported by a forward positive gamma ramp on NDX. Normally this is more of a B setup, but the added GEX context upgraded it to an A setup, so I traded it with larger size. +$732
Good example of letting broader gamma context influence conviction and sizing when the setup quality improves.
Starting Balance$3,721.47
Current Balance$3,881.47
Daily PnL+$160
Total Series PnL+$881.47
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: R4-C short / ZWAP short bias
Supporting Context: R4-C setup / ZWAP short bias confirmation
Management / Exit: Took the first R4-C short with ZWAP short bias confirmation. +$160
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: R4-C short re-entry / ZWAP short bias
Supporting Context: Re-entry of same R4-C short idea / continued ZWAP short bias
Management / Exit: Re-entered the same R4-C short setup for a second push lower. +$120
Trade 3
Primary Entry Reason: Mean reversion long attempt
Supporting Context: Positive gamma ramp / 10am timing / target was 681 main gamma area on SPY
Management / Exit: Took a long attempt around 10am based on the positive gamma ramp and the idea of a mean reversion back to the 681 main gamma area on SPY. The move did not develop as expected. -$120
Tricky post-CPI Friday price action. Using smaller positions due to less conviction served us well.
Starting Balance$3,842.44
Current Balance$4,419.44
Daily PnL+$577
Total Series PnL+$1,419.44
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: ZWAP short scalp
Supporting Context: Potential move to VWAP / took profit early
Management / Exit: Took a ZWAP short scalp with the possibility of a move down to VWAP, but chose to take profits early. +$221
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: R3 long / ZWAP short bias exit
Supporting Context: Waiting for ZWAP to exit short bias / R3 behaves similarly to R5-R
Management / Exit: Waited for ZWAP to exit short bias before taking the long, since R3 shares the same setup logic as R5-R. The move happened very abruptly, so only part of it was captured. +$210
Trade 3
Primary Entry Reason: ZWAP long momentum
Supporting Context: EM+ target / historical tendency for R3 to hit EM+ / bearish OB overhead
Management / Exit: Took a ZWAP long momentum trade targeting EM+, since historical data suggests R3 typically reaches EM+. Exited early in profit at the bearish OB, a bit short of the full EM+ target. +$146
Regime 3 is becoming more predictable as we gather more data for the framework, which is great news.
Starting Balance$4,391.57
Current Balance$3,741.57
Daily PnL-$650
Total Series PnL+$741.57
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: Mean reversion attempt
Supporting Context: Missed the opening rally / ZWAP long bias exit / target was max GEX / choppy price action / positive GEX environment
Management / Exit: Hesitated and missed the rally at the open. Later tried to capture a mean reversion back toward max GEX once ZWAP long bias exited, but after several minutes of chop the trade was stopped out. Positive GEX won. -$650
Good discipline today. Also worth noting: both of the red days in this series so far came after missing the initial move and then trying to grab another move afterward.
Starting Balance$3,741.57
Current Balance$4,063.67
Daily PnL+$350
Total Series PnL+$1,091.57
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: Expanded Typical breakout / ZWAP confirmation
Supporting Context: Breakout above PMH / Expanded Typical day structure
Management / Exit: Took the Expanded Typical breakout above PMH with ZWAP confirmation. +$460
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: Long continuation
Supporting Context: Move toward max gamma / ZWAP long bias exit
Management / Exit: Took the long continuation toward max gamma, but exited on ZWAP long bias exit. -$110
No specific R4 setup today in terms of volatility posture / z-score.
Starting Balance$4,026.49
Current Balance$4,500.49
Daily PnL+$474.00
Total Series PnL+$1,500.49
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: ZWAP short
Supporting Context: VXX breakout above PMH and YDH
Management / Exit: Took the initial ZWAP short while VXX broke above PMH and YDH, but the trade failed and stopped out. -$400
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: Re-entry short / key level flush
Supporting Context: Re-entered 699P / PML flush target / Mag7 OB below
Management / Exit: Re-entered the 699P and held for the PML flush. In hindsight, this should have been held longer toward the Mag7 order block for more follow-through. +$874
No clear R4 setup today with all the chop and z-score noise, so the focus had to stay on key levels.
Starting Balance$4,454.06
Current Balance$3,436.06
Daily PnL-$1,018.00
Total Series PnL+$436.06
Trade 1
Primary Entry Reason: R4-VC breakdown
Supporting Context: OPEX day / breakdown attempt
Management / Exit: Took the initial R4-VC breakdown attempt and got stopped out. -$300
Trade 2
Primary Entry Reason: R4-VC breakdown re-entry
Supporting Context: Re-entry on the same breakdown idea
Management / Exit: Re-entered for the breakdown and at one point the account was about +$400 net on the day, but the move reversed and gave it all back. In hindsight, pulling the stop up to at least net breakeven would have been the smarter move. -$240
Trade 3
Primary Entry Reason: Short at EM+ for another R4-VC breakdown attempt
Supporting Context: Waited for EM+ hit / looking for breakdown
Management / Exit: Waited until EM+ was hit, then took another short looking for the R4-VC breakdown. A clear gamma ramp showed up on NDX and the trade got stopped out. -$300
In my opinion, the risk was worth taking because OPEX can create some tricky but tradable behavior. Unfortunately, GEX pulled price back. This is why OPEX is usually better treated as a skip day, but with a higher risk appetite I still like to take a shot. Only one day per month — the main rule is just don’t let it wipe you out.
